Since the first day I saw the news about entire sectors of the so called creative economy being destroyed by AI, I began to think of the dynamics of this process.
So I put together this very simple model that connects AI value to (human) Workforce Value into the same system.
Looking at the AI side there are corporate revenue (expected to rise) and AI budget (expected to rise as well) as elements. On the human side — our side here — there are employment and consumption elements.
Assumptions
- As the value of AI goes up, the value of its human counterparts must go down to the point they are no longer necessary in the same organization.
- Unemployment causes reduction in the consumption of families.
- Lower consumption translates into lower revenues to organizations.
- Lower revenues imply on reorganization and reprioritization inside organization. At this point I’m confident that revenue reductions would effect the budget for AI and for human workforce at once.
How to play
Place your mouse pointer over an element you want to stimulate first and you’ll see up and down arrows. By clicking any arrows you can place stimulus to the system, some sort of “initial trend”.
I like to start by either AI Budget (up) or Employment (down), which is basically what we are seeing now in the news: more AI, less jobs (or… more layoffs).
Once the simulation starts running you’ll notice the variance of in each of the element’s “stock”, meaning its fill color that expands when input is favorable and shrinks when it is not.
In the scenarios I’ve tested, the system has the tendency to make employment and consumption very unstable, being much more “sensible” to the variations happening in the other elements of the system.
